THE race is on for the man, or woman, to replace Efthimios Mitropoulos as secretary-general of the International Maritime Organization. The lucky successor will need to have their wits about them, as they could be handed a couple of hot potatoes.
There has been little doubt about Mr Mitropoulos’ capabilities — but during his eight-year tenure at the top, he has not managed to resolve one of the biggest questions the IMO has ever faced: how to handle the issue of greenhouse gas emission reductions.
Currently the list of potential candidates is the Philippines’ Neil Ferrer, Cyprus’ Andreas Chrysostomou, Spain’s Esteban Pacha, Japan’s Koji Sekimizu, Korea’s Lee-Sik Chai and Nigeria’s Monica Mbanefo.
They may choose the diplomatic route in which the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change appears to be wallowing — or they may take a more robust approach. Mitropoulos has tried, but his attempts have been tied and his success limited.
The more mechanical, practical measures for reducing an individual ship’s emissions could well be his swansong — and this is something the IMO is already waving at the world to prove it can at least do something.
Developing market-based measures is another kettle of fish. Capt Chrysostomou has been forthright in handling green arguments as chairman of the Marine Environment Protection Committee, but has he managed to push the issues fast enough? Another problem for him may be his nationality. Many are thinking it is time for an Asian head of the IMO. If Capt Chrysostomou, as a Cypriot, follows Mr Mitropoulos the Greek, it may be seen as too old school. Spanish Capt Pacha, secretary-general of the International Mobile Satellite Organization, could face the same obstacle.
If the IMO council favours an Asian secretary-general, this leaves the chairman of the maritime safety committee, the director of the IMO safety division and the chairman of the legal committee as candidates. Ms Mbanefo, director of the IMO’s technical co-operation division, is seen by some as an outside runner.
Do any of these candidates have the strength of character to push the member states together and formulate a solution — or even suggest the IMO cannot deal with developing a market-based instrument?
There are many other issues the IMO is addressing, not least piracy. Which candidate would be best to tackle that problem? What solutions would they advocate? Hopefully more than a ream of paperwork ‘condemning acts of piracy’. Pirates are not known for perusing the IMO’s legendary documentation.


Carriers and customers set for a Pacific punch-up
THE annual negotiating season between US shippers and container lines on the transpacific has become quite a show in recent years.
The most frequently employed adjective in the press, as it counts down the days to what is surely liner shipping’s standout conference — the Trans-Pacific Maritime Conference — is “bruising”.
Lines and their customers are described as having “bruising encounters” in the corridors of the Long Beach convention centre, and other allusions are made to boxing, battles, phoney wars, all that sort of thing.
Judging by the atmosphere at last year’s conference, there is some genuine antipathy between some members of the two sides. That is hardly likely to have lessened over a rollercoaster 2010, which saw shipboard capacity severely restrained. That, in combination with a shortage of containers, posed some difficult logistical challenges for shippers.
Carriers predictably took advantage and increased rates by up to 50%, which went a long way to producing the industry’s record results, but the way in which capacity remained tight for such an extended period of time, by all carriers, led shippers to accuse them of illegally colluding.
A Federal Maritime Commission fact-finding mission found no such thing, but one suspects that should trade volumes not be as healthy this year, shippers will be keen to exact their revenge; and one’s sense is that volumes are not going to be as strong as carriers claim.
Why? Because carriers are talking up space shortages already, and their language is as if it is a near certainty, whereas if recent history has taught us anything it is that the only reliable thing about trade predictions is that they are sure to be inaccurate.
The fundamental dynamics of the transpacific remain the same, unfortunately for carriers — the dominant factor is the American consumer, and everything one reads and hears about him suggests he is having a tough time of it.
Yes, the Dow Jones continues to trade strongly, but the suits in Wall Street do not shop in Main Street, and every other indicator I see is that Americans are dealing with decreasing amounts of disposable income as housing prices remain stubbornly low and energy prices soar.
That does not seem to me to be a good basis on which to begin negotiations with one’s customers. Sorry to see the glass half-empty, but will it be bruising? You betcha.